Oil Prices Climb as Bullish Catalysts Build

Oil prices are set to post a gain this week as a combination of inventory declines, a slowdown in U.S. manufacturing, and escalating tensions in the Middle East boost bullish sentiment.

Friday, April 26th 2024

Even if headed towards the first weekly gain since early April, oil prices have so far failed to break out above the psychologically important $90 per barrel mark. A higher-than-expected draw in US crude inventories, a notable slowdown in US manufacturing that sparked hopes of a June interest rate cut, and continuing tensions in the Middle East have added some upside with ICE Brent currently trading around $89 per barrel. 

A Copper Giant Might Be in the Making. Mining major AngloAmerican (LON:AAL) said it had received an all-share buyout proposal from the world’s largest listed miner, BHP Group (ASX:AX), in a deal that would make the BHP the world’s leading force in copper. AngloAmerican rejected the first offer as “highly unattractive”. 

Canada Warns of Wildfire Risks for Oil. The Canadian province of Alberta is tightening restrictions on movement as wildfire season started earlier than usual due to an ongoing drought, only a year after suffering the worst-ever fires in 2023 that knocked out some 300,000 b/d of oil production at the time. 

TMX Shippers Voice Concerns Ahead of May Launch. Shippers on Canada’s Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline indicated the projected start date of May 1 might not be feasible as some sections of the pipeline are yet to receive regulatory approval, even though TMX seeks to receive toll fees already next month.

Iraq Promises to Commit to OPEC+ Supply Discipline. Following months of overproduction when it overshot its quota by 200,000 b/d in Q1, Iraq is now pledging to cap its oil exports at 3.3 million b/d until the end of the year regardless of the OPEC+ meeting outcome in early June.

LME Seeks to Stymie Sanction Trade Opportunities. After UK sanctions on Russian metals created loopholes for traders, resulting in a string of aluminum storage deals in LME warehouses, the London Metal Exchange announced it would step in to halt the lucrative storage deals. 

Woodside Climate Plan Gets Voted Down. Shareholders of Australia’s leading oil producer Woodside Energy (ASX:WDS) rejected the company’s climate plan this week with 58% of the ballot finding it devoid of ambition, saying its $20 billion fossil fuel project portfolio and reliance on carbon credits is insufficient. 

Egypt Halts All LNG Exports from May. Struggling to meet its domestic power needs with drastically declining domestic gas production from the Zohr offshore field, Egypt has halted all LNG exports from May onwards, becoming a net importer for the first time since 2018.

UK North Sea to See $2.4 Billion Oil Merger. Italy’s oil major ENI (BIT:ENI) agreed to merge its UK oil and gas assets with independent producer Ithaca Energy (LON:ITH), set to hold a 38.5% stake in the newly formed company that will aim to become the largest British oil producer by 2030. 

Higher LNG Prices Prompt Asia Buyers’ Rethink. The rally in Asia’s spot LNG prices to 10.50 per mmBtu in recent trades, up 25% since the beginning of March on the back of costlier shipping and Middle East risks, has prompted a notable pullback in opportunistic buying from India and China. 

China Wants to Take Over India’s Underbelly. China’s state-controlled oil company Sinopec is pushing for greater access into the downstream sector of Sri Lanka, a long-time core market for India, planning to build a major 160,000 b/d refinery in the Chinese-run port of Hambantota. 

Airbus Gets Russia Sanctions Exemption. The government of Canada has provided Airbus with a sanctions waiver to allow it to purchase and use Russian titanium in its manufacturing after the North American country’s titanium sanctions jeopardized the utilization of Airbus aircraft there. 

Europe to Ban Russia LNG Re-Exports. According to media reports, the European Commission’s next Russia sanctions package is expected to introduce restrictions on LNG re-exports from EU ports, shying away from an outright ban on Russian LNG imports. 

Glencore Eyes Nigeria’s Mining Potential. Global mining major Glencore (LON:GLEN) has expressed interest in Nigeria’s untapped mining sector if the government ensures a stable business climate, emphasizing the African company’s nickel, cobalt, and zinc potential.

Best Regards,
Michael Kern
Editor, Oilprice.com

Green Play Ammonia™, Yielder® NFuel Energy.
Spokane, Washington. 99212
509 995 1879 Cell, Pacific Time Zone.
General office: 509-254 6854
4501 East Trent Ave.
Spokane, WA 99212