By Rizwan Choudhury
October 22, 2023

Fossil fuel power: a dying trend in 50% of economies

Power Station.                                            Schroptschop/iStock

A new study by Ember, an energy think tank, has revealed that half of the world’s economies have already crossed the peak of power generation from fossil fuels. This means they have not increased their fossil fuel power output for at least five years since reaching their highest level.

Fossil fuel power generation: A dying trend?
The study, which examined the domestic electricity generation data from 2000 to 2022, found that 107 economies, accounting for 38% of global electricity demand, have reduced their emissions by nearly 20% in the last decade. Out of these, 78 economies have replaced fossil fuels with clean energy sources in their power sectors since hitting their post-2000 fossil fuel peak. Interestingly, 49 have increased their total electricity generation, primarily due to growing demand.

Dave Jones, the global insights lead at Ember, said that many people need to be aware of how many countries are already in a phase of fossil fuel decline in their power sectors. He added that many countries have achieved this while meeting the rising electricity demand.

The study also showed that countries from almost every region are moving away from fossil fuel power. The EU, Oceania, and North America have seen a significant drop in fossil fuel generation by 30%, 20%, and 15%, respectively, from their regional peaks. The EU is the leader in this regard, with only one member state (Latvia) not reaching the five-year mark since its peak in fossil fuel power in 2000.

On the other hand, fossil fuel power across Africa has stagnated; a similar trend is observed in Latin America and the Caribbean, where it has been happening for over a decade. The only regions that have yet to reach their peak are Asia and the Middle East. However, some exceptions exist, such as Nepal, which has eliminated fossil fuels from its power sector.

Jones said that solar and wind power are so successful that many key emerging economies are nearly reaching their peak in fossil fuel power. He said we are on the verge of a new era of fossil decline in the global power sector.

The study also revealed that economies that have passed the peak in fossil fuel power for at least one year represent 50% of global demand. This indicates we are at a tipping point for fossil fuel power generation. According to Ember’s analysis, power sector emissions have barely increased by 0.2% in the first half of 2023.

Additionally, Ember's fourth annual Global Electricity Review report conducts an extensive analysis of electricity data sourced from 78 countries, representing 93% of the world's electricity demand. The information also makes estimations regarding changes in electricity generation for the remaining countries. Furthermore, it delves into a detailed examination of the top ten carbon dioxide (CO2) emitting countries and regions, accounting for more than 80% of global CO2 emissions.

In a noteworthy development, wind and solar energy sources achieved a record 12% share of global electricity production in 2022. This achievement is poised to propel us into a new era where wind and solar power could play a pivotal role in reducing the reliance on fossil fuel-based generation. This transition holds the promise of reducing emissions in the power sector.

The global electricity sector stands at the forefront of the decarbonization efforts. This transition is particularly significant as electricity demand continues to rise. Electrification, as a critical enabler, offers the potential for substantial emissions reductions across the entire economy. According to the IEA's Net Zero Emissions scenario, the power sector could achieve net-zero emissions by 2040, an entire decade ahead of the broader economy's target in 2050. Therefore, closely monitoring the transition in the electricity sector is vital for assessing our progress in combating climate change.