October 4, 2023
By Russ Quinn DTN

DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends
Fertilizer Prices Moving in Two Different Directions

OMAHA (DTN) -- Retail fertilizer prices tracked by DTN for the fourth week of September 2023 are showing a more pronounced split as some prices rise and others fall.

For the first time in many months, multiple fertilizers were higher in price. DTN designates a significant move as anything 5% or more.

Five of the eight major fertilizers were more expensive compared to last month. Of the five, three fertilizers had a considerable price increase.

Anhydrous was 13% higher compared to last month with an average price of $767/ton. Both MAP and UAN32 were 6% more expensive looking back a month. MAP had an average price of $777/ton while UAN32 was at $413/ton

The two remaining fertilizers had slightly higher prices compared to last month. Urea had an average price of $570/ton and 10-34-0 was at $610/ton.

Three fertilizers were lower compared to the prior month, albeit just slightly lower. DAP had an average price of $703/ton, potash $508/ton and UAN28 $353/ton.

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.62/lb.N, anhydrous $0.47/lb.N, UAN28 $0.63/lb.N, and UAN32 $0.65/lb.N.

In a recent Farmdoc Daily article from the University of Illinois Extension, nitrogen prices over the last 15 years were discussed in detail (https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/…). As one might imagine, nitrogen prices in Illinois over this time saw much price variability.

While price variability was seen in the past, the last two years have logged huge nitrogen price spikes and falls. Since 2020, the price reported in the USDA AMS Illinois fertilizer reports has averaged $193/ton and exceeded $500/ton over multiple weeks in both 2022 and 2023.

"Variability was also relatively higher during the period of sharp fertilizer price declines from late 2008 through 2009 with an average price range of $160/ton," according to the report. "Variability was lower from 2010 through 2019 with an average price of $76/ton."

The timing of nitrogen variability was discussed. The historical data available from USDA-AMS suggests variability around average nitrogen prices can be more pronounced during periods of quickly adjusting markets -- when average prices are rising or falling at a relatively fast pace.

"This has important implications for farmers as they make pricing and purchasing decisions, particularly during periods of fast market adjustment," the report said. "To the extent possible, soliciting price quotes for nitrogen fertilizer products, as well as other inputs, from multiple sources is advised."

All fertilizers are now lower by double digits compared to a year ago. DAP is 23% lower; MAP is 26% less expensive; 10-34-0 is 29% lower; urea is 30% less expensive; UAN32 is 38% lower; UAN28 is 39% less expensive; potash is 42% lower and anhydrous is 44% less expensive compared to a year prior.

DTN gathers fertilizer price bids from agriculture retailers each week to compile the DTN Fertilizer Index. DTN first began reporting data in November 2008.

In addition to national averages, MyDTN subscribers can access the full DTN Fertilizer Index, which includes state averages, here: https://www.mydtn.com/….

A recent Iowa State University Extension press release details some of the do's and don'ts in applying anhydrous ammonia in the fall. You can read about it here: https://www.dtnpf.com/….

Russ Quinn can be reached at Russ.Quinn@dtn.com

Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @RussQuinnDTN