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2030 target creating uncertainty
around the future of fertilizer use
By: Kelvin Heppner
August 13, 2021
The federal government has its eye on
reducing nitrous oxide emissions from fertilizer, but it’s not clear
how it intends to reach its target, and whether the target is
achievable without having a detrimental impact on crop yields.
Last December, while announcing the federal carbon tax would be
increasing to $170/tonne of CO2 equivalent, the Liberal government
also unveiled a 30 per cent reduction target for emissions from
synthetic nitrogen fertilizer by 2030, when compared with 2020 as a
benchmark year.
The government says the reduction is necessary to meet Canada’s 2030
greenhouse gas emissions reduction target and net-zero by 2050.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) held informal meetings
regarding the target with farm and industry groups this past spring.
More formal consultations on how N fertilizer emissions could be
reduced by 30 per cent were planned for early this fall, but it’s
likely they will now be delayed by the impending federal election
campaign.
Agriculture Minister Marie-Claude Bibeau’s office has repeatedly
referred to the target as “voluntary” and “aspirational,” however
there’s definitely a belief among industry stakeholders that it would
not remain voluntary if push comes to shove with meeting the 30 per
cent goal, which the government is counting on to reduce emissions by
an estimated four megatonnes CO2 equivalent.
The big question: could the government ultimately restrict or cap the
amount of fertilizer farmers use to meet this 30 per cent target?
It depends on whether emissions can be reduced by 30 per cent using
practices that lower emissions per unit of fertilizer applied, such as
those under the 4R nutrient stewardship framework. Just as important,
it also depends on how emissions — and reductions in emissions — are
measured.
In an email to RealAgriculture, a spokesperson for AAFC emphasizes
“the 30 per cent reduction target is not aimed at reducing fertilizer
use, but rather at associated nitrous oxide emissions, including
direct emissions following fertilizer application, indirect emissions
from nitrogen leached from fields, and indirect emissions from ammonia
nitrogen volatilization.”
“All practices that could contribute to a reduction in nitrous oxide
emissions associated with fertilizer use will be considered, including
those associated with the 4Rs,” continues the AAFC official.
If 4R practices are recognized, there is some research, including work
led by Mario Tenuta at the University of Manitoba, showing enhanced
efficiency fertilizers could potentially reduce emissions within range
of the 30 per cent target. Sorted then, right?
Not so fast.
Because the AAFC spokesperson clearly say changes in fertilizer
emissions “will be measured in line with the methodologies used for
reporting nitrous oxide emissions from the agriculture sector in the
National Inventory Report (NIR) developed by Environment and Climate
Change Canada.”
Even if 4R practices are recognized, the government’s timeline for
implementing, measuring, and accounting for them is also an issue, as
from a farmer’s perspective, there are only eight growing seasons
between now and 2030.
This statement seems to contradict the promise to recognize practices
that reduce emissions intensity, as the NIR hasn’t accounted for 4R
practices in the past.
The NIR follows the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s
standards for estimating and reporting emissions, and the Canadian
government is committed to using the international protocol, which
means it’s not clear how farm-level improvements in reducing
fertilizer emissions would even be captured in the government’s
official greenhouse gas math.
Even if 4R practices are recognized, the government’s timeline for
implementing, measuring, and accounting for them is also an issue, as
from a farmer’s perspective, there are only eight growing seasons
between now and 2030.
Add it all up, and you can’t help but wonder about the likelihood of
restrictions on fertilizer use — a cap on emissions from nitrogen
fertilizer — serving as the government’s mechanism for reaching the 30
per cent reduction.
Fertilizer Canada, the Western Canadian Wheat Growers Association,
Grain Growers of Canada, and others are warning the government that
restrictions on overall fertilizer use would have a direct negative
impact on crop yields, farm incomes, and Canada’s overall agricultural
output. It’s possible overall emissions could even increase, as more
acres and other inputs, such as fuel, would likely be required to
produce the same amount of food.
A mandated reduction in fertilizer use would also contradict the
Liberal government’s own stated goals for boosting agricultural output
in the often-quoted Barton Report and the recently passed Liberal
policy motion to promote Canada as “an agricultural superpower.”
“Let me be clear: reducing N2O emissions by 30 per cent is extremely
ambitious and perhaps even unachievable without compromising crop
yields and thereby threatening global food security and our position
as a global leader in agriculture,” noted Candace Laing, vice
president of sustainability and stakeholder relations for fertilizer
manufacturer and retailer Nutrien, speaking to the House of Commons
agriculture committee in May.
It appears AAFC is aware of the concerns about how emissions from
fertilizer will be measured. The participants in this spring’s
informal consultations received an email last month indicating future
discussions may focus on the challenge of accurately measuring
fertilizer emissions, as well as ways to properly measure and
communicate the impact of farm-level practices.
AAFC also says it’s in the process of summarizing the feedback it has
received to date to serve as a guide for the formal consultations that
were to begin in early fall.
In Europe, the EU has mandated a 20 per cent reduction in fertilizer
use, including manure, by 2030.
Whether Canada’s fertilizer policy will follow what’s happening in
Europe is still to be determined at this point, but the conversation,
which could have a huge impact on Canadian crop production, has
started and will likely intensify in the coming months.
Green Play Ammonia™, Yielder® NFuel Energy.
Spokane, Washington. 99212
www.exactrix.com
509 995 1879 cell, Pacific.
exactrix@exactrix.com
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